WP5 – Predictive tool for Ostreopsis blooms

WP5 aims to explore correlations between environmental drivers and occurence and magnitude of Ostreopsis blooms. The links between cell abundances and physical-chemical variables will be explored for each individual area of the individual Partners, through multiple regression models. The Genoa coastline will be set as the pilot area for delivering the Ostreopsis modelling tool, on basis of the long data set available (since summer 2006) and because of the regular occurrence of blooms in the last years. For the the Ligurian Sea, a theoretical model of correlation between the algal bloom development and the main chemical-physical parameters of the system will be defined and integrated in a hindcast database for meteomarine parameters in the pilot area through the use of a 3D numerical model A predictive tool for Ostreopsis blooms, on the basis of identified environmental drivers, will be developed for the pilot area. Activities will be performed on the basis of existing data sets, collated with the new data collected in the project framework and with the 3D hindcast database. This model will represent a prototype and the “how to do it” will be exported to all involved Countries.

The predictive model produced on the historical data set of the pilot area, implemented with the data produced during the first summer season in the project course, will be tested and validated during the second summer.